Afghan Anxiety about the 2014 Withdrawal
Aidai Masylkanova*
آیا کشتی افغانستان در حال غرق شدن است؟ نگرانی افغانها از خروج نیروهای خارجی در 2014 / آیدای مسیلخانوه*
مشاهده نویسنده نشان می دهد که ناخرسندی و حتی خشم افغانها نسبت به حضور خارجیان به خصوص نیروهای آیسف در کشور رو به فزونی است اما با وجود آن افغانها از خروج نیروهای خارجی بعد از 2014 نیز نگرانند. نویسنده سپس علل این پارادوکس را در موارد ذیل جستجو می کند: یک) افغانستان یک موازاییک از ملیت ها و اقوام است که اعتماد بین آنها به خصوص بعد از تجربه تلخ طالبان متزلزل است؛ دو) نزول قابل توجه در وضعیت اقتصادی، شغل و درآمد افغانها با خروج خارجیان؛ سه) تجربه ناکام افغانها در گذشته در رسیدن به مصالحه. به این دلایل گرچه افغانها عاشق چشم و ابروی خارجیان نیستند اما از آینده خود و برگشت دشمنان داخلی خود در نبود خارجیان بیم دارند. به خصوص با مطرح شدن روند خروج بعد از 2014 توجه افغانها به جنبه های مثبت حضور نیروهای خارجی در تامین امنیت شان بیشتر شده است.
* آیدای مسیلخانوه: متخصص امنیت بین الملل از یونیورسیتی کولمبیا در امریکا، افسر سیاسی یوناما و شهروند قرغیزستان
The withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan by 2014 has been the central foreign policy issue of both of Obama's presidential campaigns. The American population seems to generally support the initiative, while both criticizing the timing and questioning the outcome for the US and Afghanistan. Many ordinary Americans ask why should the US keep engaging with Afghanistan post-2014 or why can’t the withdrawal come sooner so as to avoid the unnecessary losses of American soldiers. Others argue that the United States as a world leader should act responsibly to prevent Afghanistan from falling into a devastating civil war and thus criticize the withdrawal as a product of poor judgment – and that it will lead inevitably to chaos. As an example, they cite the post-Soviet withdrawal, following which the US abandoned the country and it fell under Taliban control.
Serving as political affairs officer for the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) last year, I observed - like many others inside and outside the country - that for various reasons the local population did not feel very hospitable towards the international forces, to say the least. Many Afghans, either ignorantly or deliberately, do not make any difference between the ISAF and the international community, referring to all of them as Americans or American puppets. For that very reason, the incident occurred on 1 April 2011 when the UN compound in one of the regions was attacked by the demonstrators against burning the Koran and UN staff members were killed. More recently there has been a steady increase in so-called green-on-blue attacks on ISAF soldiers. Instead of going into the details of each incident, we can ask more generally: Do Afghans want Americans in their country beyond 2014?
Serving as political affairs officer for the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) last year, I observed - like many others inside and outside the country - that for various reasons the local population did not feel very hospitable towards the international forces, to say the least. Many Afghans, either ignorantly or deliberately, do not make any difference between the ISAF and the international community, referring to all of them as Americans or American puppets. For that very reason, the incident occurred on 1 April 2011 when the UN compound in one of the regions was attacked by the demonstrators against burning the Koran and UN staff members were killed. More recently there has been a steady increase in so-called green-on-blue attacks on ISAF soldiers. Instead of going into the details of each incident, we can ask more generally: Do Afghans want Americans in their country beyond 2014?
