Afghan Anxiety about the 2014 Withdrawal
Aidai Masylkanova*
آیا کشتی افغانستان در حال غرق شدن است؟ نگرانی افغانها از خروج نیروهای خارجی در 2014 / آیدای مسیلخانوه*
مشاهده نویسنده نشان می دهد که ناخرسندی و حتی خشم افغانها نسبت به حضور خارجیان به خصوص نیروهای آیسف در کشور رو به فزونی است اما با وجود آن افغانها از خروج نیروهای خارجی بعد از 2014 نیز نگرانند. نویسنده سپس علل این پارادوکس را در موارد ذیل جستجو می کند: یک) افغانستان یک موازاییک از ملیت ها و اقوام است که اعتماد بین آنها به خصوص بعد از تجربه تلخ طالبان متزلزل است؛ دو) نزول قابل توجه در وضعیت اقتصادی، شغل و درآمد افغانها با خروج خارجیان؛ سه) تجربه ناکام افغانها در گذشته در رسیدن به مصالحه. به این دلایل گرچه افغانها عاشق چشم و ابروی خارجیان نیستند اما از آینده خود و برگشت دشمنان داخلی خود در نبود خارجیان بیم دارند. به خصوص با مطرح شدن روند خروج بعد از 2014 توجه افغانها به جنبه های مثبت حضور نیروهای خارجی در تامین امنیت شان بیشتر شده است.
* آیدای مسیلخانوه: متخصص امنیت بین الملل از یونیورسیتی کولمبیا در امریکا، افسر سیاسی یوناما و شهروند قرغیزستان
The withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan by 2014 has been the central foreign policy issue of both of Obama's presidential campaigns. The American population seems to generally support the initiative, while both criticizing the timing and questioning the outcome for the US and Afghanistan. Many ordinary Americans ask why should the US keep engaging with Afghanistan post-2014 or why can’t the withdrawal come sooner so as to avoid the unnecessary losses of American soldiers. Others argue that the United States as a world leader should act responsibly to prevent Afghanistan from falling into a devastating civil war and thus criticize the withdrawal as a product of poor judgment – and that it will lead inevitably to chaos. As an example, they cite the post-Soviet withdrawal, following which the US abandoned the country and it fell under Taliban control.
Serving as political affairs officer for the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) last year, I observed - like many others inside and outside the country - that for various reasons the local population did not feel very hospitable towards the international forces, to say the least. Many Afghans, either ignorantly or deliberately, do not make any difference between the ISAF and the international community, referring to all of them as Americans or American puppets. For that very reason, the incident occurred on 1 April 2011 when the UN compound in one of the regions was attacked by the demonstrators against burning the Koran and UN staff members were killed. More recently there has been a steady increase in so-called green-on-blue attacks on ISAF soldiers. Instead of going into the details of each incident, we can ask more generally: Do Afghans want Americans in their country beyond 2014?
In such circumstances, the idea of regional cooperation is raised and often is perceived as the one simple solution to make things work in Afghanistan. No wonder that the application of this policy also has been only simple diplomatic performances. Afghanistan, as well as other countries, do all they can to attend regional meetings and become members of regional organizations, which are numerous. Afghanistan, for instance, is a member of ECO, SAARC, and an observer of Shanghai Cooperation Organization. In addition, other multilateral initiatives are being introduced in various combinations between Afghanistan and its neighboring countries. In such multiplicity of regional cooperation initiatives, the strategic vision of the future has become more distorted than clear.
Last year the transition process called Inteqal in Dari i.e. the transfer of responsibility for security from international to Afghan forces, began in a number of provinces. Bamyan Province in the Central Highlands region of Afghanistan, where I was stationed, was among the first of these, because it is considered to be one of the most secure provinces in the country. It owes its safety to the fact that it is dominated by the Hazara population, the minority that suffered most during the Taliban rule and thus does not support insurgency. However, the province has other insecurity considerations, such as the rivalry among the local anti-government elements, seasonal clashes with the nomadic Kuchi over pasture terrain, as well as tensions with other ethnicities over natural resources. In any case, the news about the transition was received by people in the province - including by government officials –as a warning that the international community will soon leave them and that the Taliban will subsequently return. The increase in insecurity throughout the country, including in Bamyan Province, as soon as the transition was announced spread more panic among the people, who saw this rise in violence as a sign that the Taliban would take over after the international forces failed to defeat them. The anxiety rose not only among ordinary people but also among the security forces. An Afghan general with whom I had several discussions since the beginning of the transition had a view similar to those of civilians. He too was worried that insecurity would probably increase even in safer places, but given his position he expressed optimism that with proper training and equipments, the Afghan security forces should be able to maintain control. Another Afghan general, formerly in the country’s spy agency, was more pessimistic: after the withdrawal, it is most likely that the country will experience chaos and civil war, ensuring the return to power of the Taliban. When asked if he agreed with the prognosis that "things will get worse before getting better," he responded that that was overly optimistic.
Even though the possible withdrawal of US forces was put on the table in Barack Obama’s 2008 campaign, there was not a clear idea of how it would happen. The transition was not a long-discussed subject but rather a quickly evolving process, of which people learned as it happened and for which they were largely unprepared. To many, the transition meant that not only ISAF but also the UN and other international stakeholders would leave, which they felt was confirmed by the downsizing of UN offices in various parts of the country. As soon as the international community realized the rising panic, it undertook initiatives to raise awareness of what the transition would mean. The local police, with the support of international colleagues and local authorities, organized tours to remote areas to explain that the transition did not mean that the international community was leaving completely or that it would stop supporting Afghans. It is hard to say whether this information campaign had an immediate effect on reducing the anxiety among Afghans, but they certainly appreciated the efforts to keep them informed. At various high-level events, the international community pledged that it would not abandon Afghanistan and urged neighboring countries to support the transition process. In spite of these promises, I would occasionally hear my Afghan colleagues discussing emigration opportunities. They felt that the assurances of the international community were simply rhetoric and thus they should have an exit plan since they are among the first potential victims if the Taliban returned. Ordinary people in Bamyan would ask if my country, which is in the same region, accepted immigrants. Since I left Afghanistan in March of this year, I increasingly receive queries from friends in Afghanistan about the migration policies of various countries. Very often these are educated people, professionals. It is worrying that these competent cadres, potential leaders in any effort to keep the peace in their country post-2014, are sending SOS signals as if from a sinking ship. In fact, many of them confided that should they have an opportunity, they would take the risk of getting on boats with migrants to cross the oceans rather than stay and wait for chaos to descend.
So why is it that these same Afghans who viewed ISAF as doing more harm than good, are now anxious about the withdrawal?
Firstly, Afghanistan is a patchwork not only of ethnicities, but of points of view. Pashtuns make up the majority of the population and are seen as closely linked to the Taliban and thus may look forward to the withdrawal, which to some of them means the opportunity to gain back control over the country. But opinion varies widely among Pashtuns, often according to tribal affiliation. For the rest of the population, minorities such as Uzbek, Tajik, Hazara and others, the withdrawal signals fewer rights, less protection, and the loss of representation in the government and the parliament that they obtained for the first time thanks to the international presence. Their memories of Taliban cruelties on the grounds of ethnic background are still fresh. Add then there the women of Afghanistan, whose situation improved markedly after the end of the Taleban rule. They are afraid that all the positive achievements made in the past 10 years might be reversed and that they are the most vulnerable group in the aftermath of the withdrawal. Generally speaking, an Afghan who is not an insurgent is of the opinion that security will only worsen after the withdrawal, that the local security forces are too weak, and that the country might return to a full-scale civil war.
Secondly, the US withdrawal and downsizing of the international community activities translates into a loss of jobs and income for a good portion of the local population. Not enough was done to boost the economy and create jobs; the only available jobs are in the army, police, international organisations and ISAF -- or the insurgency. While ISAF built roads, schools and hospitals, much of that infrastructure had been destroyed or damaged by the Taliban.
Thirdly, with three decades of war, many people inevitably feel pessimistic about the country’s chances at peace; they would prefer "being occupied" to living under Taliban rule. They give various reasons for such feelings, be it neighboring countries not allowing peace, never ending ethnic and tribal rivalries, or the terribly low education levels of the majority of the population – all of which create favorable conditions for a Taliban return to power.
Thus Afghans are not sorry to bid farewell to "beloved friends" but instead are afraid of the return of their own foes -- it is not because of emotional attachment to coalition forces but survival instincts. When interviewing people, it sometimes feels like they have just as negative sentiments towards coalition forces or “the Americans,” as they have towards the Taliban. However, if asked which they would prefer, they confidently respond that it’s better to have the Americans.
Sadly, throughout three decades of war, the fate of Afghans was always linked to decisions by outsiders. Perhaps things could have been different if the transition goal - to give ownership to Afghans - had been policy since the onset of the 2001 invasion. The policy came late and many, justifiably or not, see it as a desperate strategy to leave without losing face.
The transition also gives Afghans the opportunity to reflect on the positive efforts that ISAF and the international community made to improve their lives and bring peace. Indeed, many Afghans realize that, though they would have wished that coalition forces/Americans were more sensitive to Afghan culture and customs and made more efforts to protect civilians, the international presence had and has advantages as compared to the risks of withdrawal -- at least until Afghans are confident that their own security forces are capable of protecting the population.
The UN and other international stakeholders are now stressing the focus on more development activities. Everybody understands that no development is possible without security in place. Without the continued support of the international community, not only will new initiatives fail but past achievements will be destroyed. While ISAF is hastily building the capacity of the security forces, the international community should continue supporting the interaction between civil society and the security forces, thus facilitating the boost of confidence in them and building mutual trust.
And there should be a major investment in education. In spite of many efforts and improvements in the access to education, due to the decades of war, the literacy rate remains low. Only through education can one learn to live in peace with others in spite of the many differences. In a country such as Afghanistan, with its patchwork of ethnicities, it is ever more important that more people have access to education.
Finally, yes, a majority of Afghans do not want the withdrawal of U.S forces but they understand that it is a done deal and cannot be changed. Thus, they need assurances that the world will not leave them as prey to the Taliban. Will their pleas be heard?
--------------------------------------
Serving as political affairs officer for the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) last year, I observed - like many others inside and outside the country - that for various reasons the local population did not feel very hospitable towards the international forces, to say the least. Many Afghans, either ignorantly or deliberately, do not make any difference between the ISAF and the international community, referring to all of them as Americans or American puppets. For that very reason, the incident occurred on 1 April 2011 when the UN compound in one of the regions was attacked by the demonstrators against burning the Koran and UN staff members were killed. More recently there has been a steady increase in so-called green-on-blue attacks on ISAF soldiers. Instead of going into the details of each incident, we can ask more generally: Do Afghans want Americans in their country beyond 2014?
In such circumstances, the idea of regional cooperation is raised and often is perceived as the one simple solution to make things work in Afghanistan. No wonder that the application of this policy also has been only simple diplomatic performances. Afghanistan, as well as other countries, do all they can to attend regional meetings and become members of regional organizations, which are numerous. Afghanistan, for instance, is a member of ECO, SAARC, and an observer of Shanghai Cooperation Organization. In addition, other multilateral initiatives are being introduced in various combinations between Afghanistan and its neighboring countries. In such multiplicity of regional cooperation initiatives, the strategic vision of the future has become more distorted than clear.
Last year the transition process called Inteqal in Dari i.e. the transfer of responsibility for security from international to Afghan forces, began in a number of provinces. Bamyan Province in the Central Highlands region of Afghanistan, where I was stationed, was among the first of these, because it is considered to be one of the most secure provinces in the country. It owes its safety to the fact that it is dominated by the Hazara population, the minority that suffered most during the Taliban rule and thus does not support insurgency. However, the province has other insecurity considerations, such as the rivalry among the local anti-government elements, seasonal clashes with the nomadic Kuchi over pasture terrain, as well as tensions with other ethnicities over natural resources. In any case, the news about the transition was received by people in the province - including by government officials –as a warning that the international community will soon leave them and that the Taliban will subsequently return. The increase in insecurity throughout the country, including in Bamyan Province, as soon as the transition was announced spread more panic among the people, who saw this rise in violence as a sign that the Taliban would take over after the international forces failed to defeat them. The anxiety rose not only among ordinary people but also among the security forces. An Afghan general with whom I had several discussions since the beginning of the transition had a view similar to those of civilians. He too was worried that insecurity would probably increase even in safer places, but given his position he expressed optimism that with proper training and equipments, the Afghan security forces should be able to maintain control. Another Afghan general, formerly in the country’s spy agency, was more pessimistic: after the withdrawal, it is most likely that the country will experience chaos and civil war, ensuring the return to power of the Taliban. When asked if he agreed with the prognosis that "things will get worse before getting better," he responded that that was overly optimistic.
Even though the possible withdrawal of US forces was put on the table in Barack Obama’s 2008 campaign, there was not a clear idea of how it would happen. The transition was not a long-discussed subject but rather a quickly evolving process, of which people learned as it happened and for which they were largely unprepared. To many, the transition meant that not only ISAF but also the UN and other international stakeholders would leave, which they felt was confirmed by the downsizing of UN offices in various parts of the country. As soon as the international community realized the rising panic, it undertook initiatives to raise awareness of what the transition would mean. The local police, with the support of international colleagues and local authorities, organized tours to remote areas to explain that the transition did not mean that the international community was leaving completely or that it would stop supporting Afghans. It is hard to say whether this information campaign had an immediate effect on reducing the anxiety among Afghans, but they certainly appreciated the efforts to keep them informed. At various high-level events, the international community pledged that it would not abandon Afghanistan and urged neighboring countries to support the transition process. In spite of these promises, I would occasionally hear my Afghan colleagues discussing emigration opportunities. They felt that the assurances of the international community were simply rhetoric and thus they should have an exit plan since they are among the first potential victims if the Taliban returned. Ordinary people in Bamyan would ask if my country, which is in the same region, accepted immigrants. Since I left Afghanistan in March of this year, I increasingly receive queries from friends in Afghanistan about the migration policies of various countries. Very often these are educated people, professionals. It is worrying that these competent cadres, potential leaders in any effort to keep the peace in their country post-2014, are sending SOS signals as if from a sinking ship. In fact, many of them confided that should they have an opportunity, they would take the risk of getting on boats with migrants to cross the oceans rather than stay and wait for chaos to descend.
So why is it that these same Afghans who viewed ISAF as doing more harm than good, are now anxious about the withdrawal?
Firstly, Afghanistan is a patchwork not only of ethnicities, but of points of view. Pashtuns make up the majority of the population and are seen as closely linked to the Taliban and thus may look forward to the withdrawal, which to some of them means the opportunity to gain back control over the country. But opinion varies widely among Pashtuns, often according to tribal affiliation. For the rest of the population, minorities such as Uzbek, Tajik, Hazara and others, the withdrawal signals fewer rights, less protection, and the loss of representation in the government and the parliament that they obtained for the first time thanks to the international presence. Their memories of Taliban cruelties on the grounds of ethnic background are still fresh. Add then there the women of Afghanistan, whose situation improved markedly after the end of the Taleban rule. They are afraid that all the positive achievements made in the past 10 years might be reversed and that they are the most vulnerable group in the aftermath of the withdrawal. Generally speaking, an Afghan who is not an insurgent is of the opinion that security will only worsen after the withdrawal, that the local security forces are too weak, and that the country might return to a full-scale civil war.
Secondly, the US withdrawal and downsizing of the international community activities translates into a loss of jobs and income for a good portion of the local population. Not enough was done to boost the economy and create jobs; the only available jobs are in the army, police, international organisations and ISAF -- or the insurgency. While ISAF built roads, schools and hospitals, much of that infrastructure had been destroyed or damaged by the Taliban.
Thirdly, with three decades of war, many people inevitably feel pessimistic about the country’s chances at peace; they would prefer "being occupied" to living under Taliban rule. They give various reasons for such feelings, be it neighboring countries not allowing peace, never ending ethnic and tribal rivalries, or the terribly low education levels of the majority of the population – all of which create favorable conditions for a Taliban return to power.
Thus Afghans are not sorry to bid farewell to "beloved friends" but instead are afraid of the return of their own foes -- it is not because of emotional attachment to coalition forces but survival instincts. When interviewing people, it sometimes feels like they have just as negative sentiments towards coalition forces or “the Americans,” as they have towards the Taliban. However, if asked which they would prefer, they confidently respond that it’s better to have the Americans.
Sadly, throughout three decades of war, the fate of Afghans was always linked to decisions by outsiders. Perhaps things could have been different if the transition goal - to give ownership to Afghans - had been policy since the onset of the 2001 invasion. The policy came late and many, justifiably or not, see it as a desperate strategy to leave without losing face.
The transition also gives Afghans the opportunity to reflect on the positive efforts that ISAF and the international community made to improve their lives and bring peace. Indeed, many Afghans realize that, though they would have wished that coalition forces/Americans were more sensitive to Afghan culture and customs and made more efforts to protect civilians, the international presence had and has advantages as compared to the risks of withdrawal -- at least until Afghans are confident that their own security forces are capable of protecting the population.
The UN and other international stakeholders are now stressing the focus on more development activities. Everybody understands that no development is possible without security in place. Without the continued support of the international community, not only will new initiatives fail but past achievements will be destroyed. While ISAF is hastily building the capacity of the security forces, the international community should continue supporting the interaction between civil society and the security forces, thus facilitating the boost of confidence in them and building mutual trust.
And there should be a major investment in education. In spite of many efforts and improvements in the access to education, due to the decades of war, the literacy rate remains low. Only through education can one learn to live in peace with others in spite of the many differences. In a country such as Afghanistan, with its patchwork of ethnicities, it is ever more important that more people have access to education.
Finally, yes, a majority of Afghans do not want the withdrawal of U.S forces but they understand that it is a done deal and cannot be changed. Thus, they need assurances that the world will not leave them as prey to the Taliban. Will their pleas be heard?
--------------------------------------
* Aidai Masylkanova: studied International Security at Columbia
University in New York and worked as political officer with UNAMA in Afghanistan. She is a citizen of Kyrgyzstan.
Note: The editorial although had slightly different views on the substance, welcomed this article for its informed contribution to our understanding of the existing situation and its authentic point of view.
Note: The editorial although had slightly different views on the substance, welcomed this article for its informed contribution to our understanding of the existing situation and its authentic point of view.
